THE SURREALISTS' 'SPIRITUAL HUNTING'

24 JUNE 2002: THE
SURREALISTS’ ‘SPIRITUAL HUNTING’

“These were artists with
no special regard for art itself. Why bother making art

when you could find it hidden
in reality, lurking in flea markets or greasy


cafés or sex shops?
The surrealists were intrepid urban explorers, whose trips


to musty arcades or to eccentric
man-made landscapes such as the Parc des


Buttes-Chaumont in Paris
were defined as ‘spiritual hunting’.”

— Peter Conrad, in The Observer,
June 9 from a review of


History of the Surrealist
Movement
by Gérard Durozoi


(University of Chicago Press

£60, pp816)

TOURING WITH BOB LOG III THIS FALL.

23 JUNE 2002: TOURING
WITH BOB LOG III THIS FALL.


ROBERT PLANT – DREAMLAND
–   PRESS RELEASE


(June 18, 2002)

Slipping themselves into
the middle of the bill at one of Roger Daltrey‚s Teenage Cancer Trust shows
at the Albert Hall early in 2002, Robert Plant and his new band Strange
Sensation offered a tantalising glimpse of the music they‚d been working
up for Plant‚s new album, Dreamland. Demonstrating that classic music can
always breed fresh possibilities, they resurrected a selection of vintage
folk, blues and psychedelic songs, then peeled them open and rebuilt them
using Middle Eastern scales, Asian drones and hard rock. Plant, the tumble-haired
icon from the Led Zeppelin years, stood at the centre of this eclectic
dust-storm like a magician exerting mysterious control over the elements.


    “You
can probably hear the great future for this band lurking on the fade-outs
of the tracks,” he says, referring to the 10 pieces he has assembled for
the new album. “For instance, the kind of improvisation at the end of Bukka
White‚s “Funny In My Mind (I Believe I‚m Fixin‚ To Die)”, is the kind of
playing you will experience in a full hour-and-30-minute show. There is
a good communion of souls, there‚s a lot of great guitar-filigree going
on, not on a blues base but in that kind of Indo-raga style of playing,
somewhere between John Fahey, The Flaming Lips and The Electric Prunes.”

    Echoes
of The Cure can be attributed to former Cure guitarist Porl Thompson, who
first signed on with Plant in 1995 when Robert joined up with Jimmy Page
for the No Quarter tour. That project may have helped to inspire the music
Strange Sensation are currently making, since it involved Plant and Page
satisfying their fans‚ insatiable yearnings to hear the Zeppelin catalogue
again, yet in an evolved, expanded form which fired the imagination of
musicians reluctant merely to repeat their past.


    “It was
a major moment for me, the No Quarter project,” Plant recalls, “because
it was incredibly stimulating and so moving, and we were able to reinvent
the past without it being a creative millstone.


    Plant
has never lost the urge to keep exploring. He takes the view that his past
achievements will always be there for anyone who wants to check them out,
so now he might as well exploit the freedom his successes now afford him.
He doesn‚t mind ripping everything up and starting again. “My music has
got to be an honest reflection of where I‚m coming from today.”


    Since
the demise of Led Zeppelin in 1980, he has released a sequence of solo
albums which have been frequently impressive and always interesting, not
least 1990‚s Manic Nirvana or 1993‚s absorbing Fate Of Nations. His plan
is for a more spontaneous, improvisatory approach. He had to find musicians
who understood where he was coming from, yet also willing to pick up the
ball and run with it to destinations nobody could possibly predict. The
sprinkling of original pieces on the new album are credited to “Robert
Plant and band”, reflecting the power-sharing nature of the relationship.


    In addition
to Thompson and his long-serving ally Charlie Jones on bass, he recruited
drummer Clive Deamer (who has run the gamut from Roni Size and Portishead
to Jeff Beck and Dr John), keyboards player and string arranger John Baggott
(an Emmy-winning soundtrack composer who has also put in stints with Portishead,
Massive Attack and Tom Jones), and guitarist Justin Adams, whose own band
The Wayward Sheikhs draws from African and blues sources ˆ the perfect
training ground for a stint with the inquisitive Plant.


    “Justin
takes away any chance of it being just rock for rock‚s sake,” Plant enthuses.

    There‚s
a family history of connections with the Middle East and North Africa.
He plays the ghimbri on “Hey Joe” on the album, it‚s a three-stringed instrument
which changes the whole mood and Justin knows how to play it as it‚s supposed
to be played.”


    As for
the choice of material, Plant‚s love of the blues has always been matched
by his enthusiasm for Sixties folk-rock and the multi-coloured experimentation
that was seething through the American West Coast during the psychedelic
era. It was a time when an entire youth culture was up for grabs, and anything
seemed possible. “You‚d get amazing bills in those days,” he remembers.
“You‚d get Pacific Gas And Electric, It‚s A Beautiful Day, Jefferson Airplane,
Led Zeppelin, John Lee Hooker and Jerry Lee Lewis for a day. People were
just lying there on the floor and we were a bit of background noise for
their state of mind.”


    Arthur
Lee and Love, Tim Buckley, Jimi Hendrix, Moby Grape, Neil Young and Crosby
Stills & Nash have been part of Robert‚s musical landscape for 30-odd
years, although you wouldn‚t necessarily be able to tell that from listening
to the Zeppelin catalogue. However “maybe you can hear a little of it in
“Down By The Seaside” or “Going To California”, or “That‚s The Way.”


    For this
new project, the challenge was to capture the music‚s original spirit and
build something fresh and unexpected from it. Plant eased himself into
the process gradually. Before Strange Sensation took shape, he tried out
potential material with the enigmatically-named Priory of Brion. This was
a band he put together with his old mate Kevyn Gammond, with whom he‚d
played in the Midlands-based Band Of Joy alongside drummer John Bonham
in the pre-Zeppelin era. On their own magical mystery tour which took them
from Tromso in Norway to the balmy air of Sardinia, they experimented with
a wide range of material, from Donovan‚s “Season Of The Witch” to Love‚s
“A House Is Not A Motel”, Dylan‚s “Girl From The North Country” to Neil
Young‚s “Southern Man”.


    Plant
wanted to avoid huge gigs and superstar expectations. “I just wanted to
take it easy. With no pressure, no road crew to speak of ˆ and just kick
back a bit and sing those songs while I could still sing.”

    By the
time he‚d assembled Strange Sensation for some American dates last year,
the picture was becoming clear. US critics noted the way Plant might “engage
guitarist Porl Thompson?in an Arabic-inflected duel of descending scales”
on “Morning Dew”, or deliver “Hey Joe” in “a dramatic funereal reading,
thick with spacey electronic sounds.” Somebody coined the term “cosmic
jukebox” to describe their music, which Robert found pleasingly apt.


    Years
ago Plant first met folk singer Tim Rose, co-author of “Morning Dew”, back
in the Band Of Joy days, but his new version of the song seems to loom
out of some prehistoric mist.


    Plant
isn‚t the first artist either to cover Tim Buckley‚s “Song To The Siren”,
but in collusion with his bandmates he has stretched it into a diaphanous
mirage, hovering in perfumed slow motion. Bob Dylan‚s “One More Cup Of
Coffee” sounds like an Old Testament lament, Plant wearily moaning the
lyric as if he has a thousand miles of burning desert to cross while the
musicians sound as if they‚re hallucinating in the heat.


    If you‚re
familiar with Jimi Hendrix‚s recording of “Hey Joe”, you probably won‚t
recognize Plant‚s version until you get to the part where the band hurriedly
scribble in the Hendrix riff, just for reference. “Love did it before Hendrix”
Plant points out (and, he might have added, so did The Byrds). But I think
the version of “Hey Joe” that we do is so removed from all the other versions
that it‚s got its own life.”


    And there
had to be some blues, though this bunch drag Arthur Crudup‚s “Win My Train
Fare Home” out of the gutbucket and into a laboratory where they stick
electrodes in it and subject it to experiments in modal jazz and ambient
swirls.


    “I guess
we can go anywhere we want to go,” Plant ponders. “I don‚t know whether
there‚s a place for me within contemporary pop culture or if there‚s a
place for it in my head now, but I know there‚s an energy about this music
and a style which is worth pursuing and pushing a bit more. There‚s a kind
of musical empathy I haven‚t been aware of for a long time.”

THE INSIDERS

22 JUNE 2002: THE INSIDERS

The Insiders

The stock scandal involving
Martha Stewart has pulled back the curtain on a world where the rich pass
around business gossip the way the help passes out canapes

By Marc Peyser

NEWSWEEK

 July 1 issue ˜ 
It was two days after Christmas, and Martha Stewart˜magazine editor, TV
host, syndicated columnist and high priestess of domesticity˜wanted to
get away from it all. She was flying with two friends from Connecticut
to Mexico‚s ultratony Las Ventanas resort (a junior suite starts at $585)
when her private jet stopped in San Antonio, Texas, to refuel. Just like
the rest of us hardworking folks, she called her office to check her messages.
The most important one was from her broker, Peter Bacanovic, and Stewart
had her assistant patch him into her cell.


          

BACANOVIC‚S NEWS: ONE of her stocks, a high-flying biotech company called
ImClone, had dropped below $60, the price at which she says they had previously
agreed to sell. Stewart told Bacanovic to dump her 3,928 shares. Then she
did something that only the Martha Stewarts of this world can do. She dialed
Sam Waksal, who just happened to be the CEO of ImClone, not to mention
one of Martha‚s closest friends. „Something‚s going on with ImClone,‰ Martha
said in her message, „and I want to know what it is.‰


       
And thus sprouted a very big weed in Martha Stewart‚s well-manicured life.
In the past few weeks, Stewart has found herself drawn deeper and deeper
into another one of those Wall Street scandals that turn the rich and powerful
into losers. Martha isn‚t accused of setting up phony off-balance-sheet
companies like the Enron boys, or of borrowing an obscene amount of money
from her own corporation like the guy at WorldCom. Nor did she pretend
to ship art works out of state to avoid sales taxes, as Tyco‚s CEO allegedly
did. She‚s being questioned on the more mundane issue of insider trading,
for selling her ImClone shares (and banking $228,000) just a day before
the FDA announced it wouldn‚t review the company‚s cancer drug called Erbitux.
(If she‚d sold after the FDA announcement, it would have cost her $43,000.)


      
Stewart denies any wrongdoing, but the heat keeps rising. Just days after
the congressional committee investigating ImClone seemed to be backing
away from Martha, Merrill Lynch last week abruptly put her broker on leave.
Investigators, who hope to interview Bacanovic on Thursday or Friday, now
say they are specifically targeting the nature of his conversation with
Martha on Dec. 27 for evidence that she knew more about ImClone‚s fate
than she‚s saying. For politicians eager to make a show of frying high-profile
CEOs, they may be closer to reeling in a very big fish.


       
But l‚affaire Martha isn‚t just about ImClone. It has also pulled back
the crushed-velvet curtain on the clubby world of New York‚s social elite,
a place where the rich and powerful pass around insider business gossip
as readily as the help passes out smoked-salmon canapes. With post-Enron
investors already questioning the fairness of the marketplace, Stewart‚s
case is the most visible reminder yet that folks on the inside get richer
while the rest of us watch our 401(k)s shrivel. And that‚s put Martha smack
in the middle of the one thing in the world she hates the most˜a mess.


       
The irony is that, for a brief, shining moment, it seemed like people were
getting tired of bashing Martha Stewart. The latest tell-all book, „Martha,
Inc.,‰ got lousy reviews and faded after a few weeks. „Saturday Night Live‰
parodied her only twice this season. One skit made her look downright heroic,
with the „SNL‰ Martha stitching a needlepoint napkin that read suck it,
osama. Even the bankruptcy of Kmart, where Stewart has been selling her
housewares since 1997, didn‚t bruise her for long. We‚d finally come to
accept her. She was tough. She was a survivor. Time and time again, Martha
had been given lemons, and she‚d always found a way to make sparkling ginger-plum
lemonade.


       
This time, she may need a heavy-duty juicer. The case against Martha will
come down to what she knew about ImClone, when she knew it and, most important,
how she got the information. Just before Stewart dumped her stock in December,
ImClone was a very hot company. Erbitux, a miracle cancer drug that was
its primary product, had already appeared on the cover of BusinessWeek,
and the FDA had accelerated its process for approving it. But suddenly,
something went wrong. On Dec. 26, Waksal learned that the government found
the Erbitux clinical trials to be inadequate, and it wouldn‚t be approved
after all. According to congressional investigators, the next day Waksal
attempted to sell 72,000 shares before news of the FDA‚s decision broke.
When ImClone‚s lawyers stopped him, he allegedly attempted to give his
shares to his daughter Aliza, but was again blocked. (Aliza has refused
to comment.) Nonetheless, she unloaded her own 39,472 shares on the morning
of Dec. 27 for $2.5 million. Not coincidentally, Aliza‚s broker was also
Bacanovic. Just hours after he is believed to have executed her sales,
he spoke to Stewart. If the daughter of the CEO was bailing out, surely
Bacanovic knew there was trouble, right? And wouldn‚t he have wanted to
pass along that information to Stewart? „He‚s the one that‚s either going
to blow this thing wide open or put it to bed in terms of Martha Stewart,‰
says Ken Johnson, a spokesman for the House committee. Bacanovic could
not be reached, and Merrill Lynch has refused to comment.

       
It‚s often said that New York is actually a very small town, and nowhere
is that more true than at the tippy-top of the social ladder. In the world
of black-tie parties and nonstop charity events, executive musings are
what make for idle cocktail chatter, at least after the guests finish gossiping
about who just had another face-lift. „A lot of information is being passed
amongst each other just for reasons of talking,‰ says David Patrick Columbia,
editor in chief of NewYorkSocialDiary.com. „They don‚t even think of it
as insider information.‰ In fact, while stockbrokers usually require the
little people to fill out a written order to automatically sell a stock
when it reaches a predetermined price, that‚s not always the case with
the Park Avenue crowd. „Sometimes verbally he would say, ŒWe should sell
this when it gets to a certain point,‚ and I don‚t remember any paperwork,‰
says Patrick McMullan, who is something of the official photographer to
New York society, as well as a client of Bacanovic‚s. „Sometimes there
would be an order written, but sometimes he‚d say, ŒLook, I‚ll call‚.‰


       
And Stewart, Waksal and Bacanovic travel in an especially small social
circle. Waksal actually came to know Martha through her daughter, Alexis,
whom he once dated, even though Alexis is now 36 and Waksal is 54. Martha
and Waksal often talk on the phone as early as 6 a.m. She designed the
kitchen in his palatial Manhattan loft. He treats her like the royalty
she sometimes appears to think she is. Two years ago Waksal asked Martha
to be the guest of honor at the annual gala at the New York Council for
the Humanities, which he chairs. The guest of honor traditionally has made
a significant contribution to the humanities, which, despite her tireless
efforts to promote the importance of handmade paper, does not really apply
to Martha. „The response by people invited to the benefit,‰ says someone
affiliated with the organization, „was close to incredulity.‰


        
Then again, Waksal is famous for over-the-top gestures. His 5,000-square-foot
apartment is littered with paintings by Picasso, de Kooning, Rothko and
Bacon˜$20 million in art. He hosts a monthly salon, inviting dozens of
people to hear an artist or writer discuss his work. And his Christmas
parties are lavish and legendary. The guests (Mick Jagger showed up last
year) are always A list. So A list that two years ago, some high-priced
call girls managed to slip through the front door. This year Waksal had
someone checking names, though, presumably, they didn‚t bother with Martha.
When she breezed through the door, the buzz from the roomful of politicos
and power brokers grew noticeably quieter. Waksal abruptly stopped his
conversation and walked over to her. For a brief moment, his head touched
Martha‚s softly.


       
Even though he is more of an employee than a peer, Bacanovic, 40, was a
full-fledged member of the Waksal-Stewart universe. He‚s accompanied Martha
on photo shoots for her magazine (though it‚s Waksal whose picture turned
up in a spread last year about her backyard birthday party). Bacanovic
has been friends with Alexis Stewart for more than 20 years and was the
person who helped introduce her to Waksal, when Bacanovic was the director
of business development at ImClone in the early ‚90s. Perhaps just as important,
he shares with Stewart (born Martha Kostyra, to a working-class Polish
family in New Jersey) and Waksal (the child of two Holocaust survivors
who got a Ph.D. in immunology from Ohio State) the tireless desire to climb
the social ladder. Bacanovic delights in telling people that he lives in
the town house used to shoot the exteriors for „Breakfast at Tiffany‚s.‰
Bacanovic has also made a name for himself as a „walker,‰ a single man
who often escorts well-heeled older women to social functions. Even rarer
in that rare breed, he actually insists on paying his own way. „Peter Bacanovic
is one of my dearest friends,‰ says Nan Kempner, widely considered to be
the grande dame of New York high society. „He is probably the most honest,
conscientious, generous, kind, sweet, wonderful, intelligent person I know.
I just can‚t believe that he has done anything scandalous.‰ Though he can
be a tad shallow. When he was interviewed for an interior-design book called
„Bright Young Things,‰ he was asked, „What to your mind would be the greatest
of misfortunes?‰ His answer: „For one‚s child to predecease you and male-pattern
baldness.‰


       
For Martha, the greatest misfortune may be that the scandal comes when
her own company is thriving. Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia is performing
so well, Martha‚s just brought out her own line of linoleum. (Who knew
Martha even approved of linoleum?) The question is whether Stewart‚s company
can keep up that steam in the middle of a PR storm. The stock is down 16
percent since news broke of her involvement with ImClone (Martha‚s personal
hit on her 31 million shares: $94 million). More than most corporations,
Stewart‚s is unusually sensitive to criticism because her image and the
business are so closely entwined. But not everyone thinks that bad Martha
publicity will hurt˜after all, it‚s hardly new. „There‚s a love-hate thing
with Martha. You always hear negative stories,‰ says Laura Richardson,
an analyst for Adams, Harkness&Hill. In Bedford, N.Y., where Stewart
is building yet another home, folks are still talking about how she brought
homemade chocolate-chip cookies to win over the zoning board, only to insult
her neighbors by saying she wanted to enlarge her barn to block the view
of the ugly property across the street. Still, says Richardson, „most readers
don‚t care about that. They accept her for what she is.‰ What about stockholders?
„If this turns out to be a temporary problem, the stock will weather it,‰
she says. „If it means Martha can‚t be on TV anymore˜well, that would be
a crippling blow.‰


       

At the moment, the chances of Martha‚s going to prison are unlikely, though
cartoonists are already having a field day imaging how she‚d spruce up
her jail cell. To be convicted of insider trading, Stewart would have to
know both that she was acting on insider information when she sold the
ImClone stock and that the person who gave her the information was trying
to illegally tip her off. Considering that Waksal said he didn‚t talk to
her on Dec. 27, he‚s probably not a source of trouble. It‚s more likely
that Bacanovic deduced that ImClone was sinking and acted accordingly.
„If Martha Stewart was tipped off, we always thought it was from her broker,‰
says a congressional investigator. „If Bacanovic was tipped by Aliza, he
probably called his A-list clients. That‚s the way this jet-set crowd works.‰
But Martha˜who worked as a stockbroker in the ‚70s˜would still have had
to know she was acting on insider information, and no one has asserted
that she did. „I haven‚t heard anything more than fairly weak, circumstantial
evidence against Martha Stewart,‰ says Jack Coffee, a professor at Columbia
Law School.


       
But this is Martha Stewart, the woman who insists that visitors outside
her house walk in a prescribed direction so the grass will wear evenly.
She is not leaving anything to chance. Last week, just as the Energy and
Commerce Committee was poring over her records, „Martha Stewart Living‰
broadcast an episode featuring Billy Tauzin, the congressman leading the
ImClone investigation. Talk about amazing timing˜or was it? In fact, the
Tauzin segment, in which the congressman cooks gumbo with Martha, first
ran a year ago. Oh, and by the way, Tauzin‚s segment also featured him
promoting his own book. Its title: „Cook and Tell.‰

——————————————————————————–

With Keith Naughton, Peg
Tyre, Tamara Lipper, T. Trent Gegax and Lisa Bergtraum

"THE NERVE" BY STEVE AYLETT

21 JUNE 2002: “THE NERVE”
BY STEVE AYLETT




ABOVE: MONOMAN

“The Nerve is  a 3 Issue
comic series being published in the UK, that will hopefully available worldwide.
The Nerve© is a truly original story by aclaimed UK writer Steve Aylett
. —Matthew
Petz

“Quay is a bookseller gaunt,
tired and worn out by the dreary customers who thrive on romance novels
and idealess stories. By headache Quay becomes the Nerve, a superhero whose
very strength is his pain – his own body a weapon. He is a migraine incarnate.


    The Nerve
and his companions Useless Floating Baby, the Spectacle, Blinder aka the
Gap, & Crisis Girl fight against dark forces conspiring to drive humanity
into zombie mediocrity; a beige age. The Nerve & Co must use their
abilities to overcome a swath of foes General Anaesthetic, the Segregator,
Dr Frail, The Passerby and the Nerve’s greatest threat Solace, in order
to thwart the sinister plotting of arch villain, LeBlank.”

KEEPING THE POOR…POOR.

20 JUNE 2002: KEEPING
THE POOR…POOR.

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/06/05/national/05CENS.html

Gains of 90’s Did Not Lift
All, Census Shows

By PETER T. KILBORN and
LYNETTE CLEMETSON


 

WASHINGTON, June 4 ˜ Despite
the surging economy of the 1990’s that brought


affluence to many Americans,
the poor remained entrenched, the Census Bureau


reported today. The bureau’s
statistics for the 50 states and the District of


Columbia show that 9.2 percent
of families were deemed poor in 2000, a slight


improvement from 10 percent
in 1989.


    Men’s
incomes fell in 26 states. Nationally, their median incomes ˜ meaning half


earned
less and half more ˜ fell 2.3 percent.
Women’s incomes, while
73 percent

of men’s, rose 7 percent
over all and increased in every state except Alaska.


More women than ever went
to work.


    “Some
people thought you lost if you didn’t do as well as the next guy,” said


Martha Farnsworth Riche,
a demographer and former director of the Census Bureau.


“There’s
no doubt that we saw more inequality in the 1990’s,
but people
won


across the board in a variety
of ways.”


    The data
released today provide the first national look from the 2000 census at

such demographic issues
as income, poverty, occupation, housing and the


percentage of foreign-born
people living in the United States. The data are


compiled from the 53-question
form that was distributed to about 19 million, or


about 1 in 6, of the country’s
households in the spring of 2000. Thus it picked


up none of the impact of
the recession that was beginning then.


    Expanding
upon figures from the initial 2000 census reports last year, the


bureau reported that more
than half the foreign-born population ˜ 52 percent ˜


came from Latin America,
an increase from 44 percent in the decade. Of the 281.4

million people the census
found in 2000, it said 31.1 million came from abroad,


11.3 million more than in
1990, an increase of 57 percent.


    This
increase in the immigrant population, which many state officials believe


was undercounted, surpassed
the century’s greatest wave of immigration, from


1900 to 1910, when the number
of foreign-born residents grew by 31 percent,


according to the Center
for Immigration Studies in Washington.


    Demographers
noted that for the first time in the 1990’s, immigrants moved far


beyond the big coastal cities
and Chicago and Denver and Houston, into the Great

Plains, the South and Appalachia.

    The foreign-born
population of Franklin County, Ala., grew from 0.19 percent to


5.55 percent, or from 79
people to 1,734. Dawson County, Neb., had 3,866 foreign


residents, or 16 percent
of the population, in 2000, up from 138 people in 1990.


    “These
numbers represent an enormous social experiment with very high stakes,”


said Steven A. Camarota,
director of research for the Center for Immigration


Studies, which advocates
stricter immigration control. “No country has ever


attempted to assimilate
and incorporate 31 million newcomers, and the experiment

is not over.”

    Other
analysts add, however, that immigrants helped propel the boom in the 90’s,


taking low-paid service
jobs and vital assignments in medicine and in technology


companies.

    Reynolds
Farley, demographer at the University of Michigan, said some of the


nation’s old, ailing cities
also had low growth of both industry and


immigration.

    Much
of the huge growth in immigration in Sun Belt states, including Nevada,

Arizona, Georgia, North
Carolina and Tennessee, was fueled by growth in domestic


migration. The flow of wealthy
individuals fleeing congested big cities created


the need for low-wage workers
to build homes, staff restaurants and hotels and


do other low-paid service
work. The result is a barbell economy of extreme haves


and have-nots, said William
Frey, a demographer with the Milken Institute, an


economic research group
in Santa Monica, Calif.


    Nevada,
for instance, had a 94 percent increase in the number of people with


professional and graduate
degrees, but also a 76 percent increase of people with

less than a ninth-grade
education, a number driven by new immigrants. “In the


short term these groups
complement one another,” Mr. Frey said. “But over the


long term there will need
to be significant investment at the local and state


level to bring these immigrants
and their children into the middle class.”


    The census
data also indicated that sprawl intruded upon the ways Americans


lived and worked. Commuters
spent an average of 25.5 minutes getting to work in


2000, about 3 minutes more
than in 1990. Fewer walked or took public


transportation. More chose
to avoid all commuting. In 2000, 3.3 million people

worked at home, 23 percent
more than at the beginning of the decade.


    The surging
economy was a boon to many.


    In 10
years, owners saw the value of their homes rise 17 percent, to a median


$119,600, after barely budging
in the 1980’s. But there were signs that new and


typically bigger houses
were becoming harder to hold. For 15.8 percent of


homeowners, mortgage and
maintenance costs exceeded 35 percent of household


income, an increase from
13.5 percent in 1990.


    “Americans
have more wealth, but they’re living in it,” Ms. Riche said. “With

less liquid wealth, there’s
less flexibility” to save money for retirement or


college tuitions.

    While
not all the same people were poor at the end of the decade as at the


start, the proportions of
the poor changed little. About 6.6 million families,


or 9.2 percent of all families,
qualified as poor in 1999, down from 10 percent


in 1989. In 1999, a family
of four was said to be living in poverty if its


income was less than $16,954.

    Poverty
from state to state and county to county varied widely. The Children’s

Fund, a liberal advocacy
organization, said the census showed that in nine


states and the District
of Columbia, one in five children was poor. “The goal is


to help families escape
poverty, not just escape from the welfare rolls,” said


Marian Wright Edelman, the
organization’s president.


    Poverty
among adults declined little, too, from 11.3 percent to 10.9 percent.


But with the overhaul of
the welfare system six years ago, many women with


children left the welfare
rolls for work.


    The poverty
rate among female-headed households with children younger than 18

fell from 42.3 percent to
34.3 percent. Poverty among the elderly also declined,


to 9.9 percent of people
older than 65 from 12.8 percent.


    Still,
American families realized some solid gains in the decade. After taking


inflation into account,
the bureau found that the median family income climbed


9.5 percent from 1989 to
1999, to $50,046.

HOW CORRUPT IS THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION, AND WHAT IS THE FALLOUT? WORSE THAN YOU COULD POSSIBLY IMAGINE.

17 JUNE 2002: HOW
CORRUPT IS THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION, AND WHAT IS THE FALLOUT? WORSE THAN
YOU COULD POSSIBLY IMAGINE.

Dark heart of the American dream

It’s the most polluted state
in the planet’s most powerful country. Ed Vulliamy


goes into George Bush’s
backyard to reveal how big oil got in bed with big


politics and the price paid
by the little people

Sunday June 16, 2002

The
Observer

There is a perverse beauty
to the landscape arraigned below the iron bridge


where Highway 255 strides
the Houston Ship Channel: great towers of light and


fire as far as the eye can
behold; sinewy steel piping, plumes of smoke and


flame twinkling into a Texas
twilight coloured by a shroud of pollution hanging

from the sky. The awesome
prepotency of this smokescape is no illusion, for this


is an epicentre of power,
oil capital of the Western world and the most


industrialised corner of
the United States. It is also the capital of a power


machine perfected in Texas,
elevated to rule the nation and now unchallenged


across the planet. A machine
that operates in perpetual motion – an equilibrium


of interests – between industry
and politics. LaNell Anderson, former Republican


voter, businesswoman and
real-estate broker who lived many years in this land of


smokestacks and smog, calls
it ‘vending-machine politics: you puts your money in


and you gets your product
out’.

    ‘We don’t
see ourselves as a dynasty,’ said George Bush Sr as his son launched


the election campaign that
won him the current presidency, raiding father’s


Rolodex to do so. ‘We don’t
feel entitled to anything.’ And yet at no point in


the past 50 years – the
half-century since 1952 which defines the modern age –


has there not been a Bush
in a governor’s mansion (in Texas or Florida), on


Capitol Hill or in the White
House – and usually more than one of those at a


time. The ‘vending machine’
is a single family whose tango with the powers which


illuminate this endless
horizon of light and flame is a dance around every

corner in the labyrinth
of Texan and now national – indeed global – politics.


‘Everything they learned
when they started out in west Texas,’ says Dr Neil


Carman, once a regulator
of pollution in the state, ‘they applied to the


governor’s mansion, the
nation and the world… Power in America is not so much


about George W Bush, it’s
about the people from Texas who put him there.’


    This
is the dynasty’s throne, the state whose highways are lined with the


spirited advice ‘Don’t Mess
With Texas’ (originally the slogan of an anti-litter


campaign). As if litter
would make much difference: Texas counts the worst

pollution record in the
US, top in the belching of toxic chemicals and


carcinogens into the air,
top in chemical spills, top in ozone pollution, top in


carbon-dioxide emissions,
top for mercury emission, top in clean-water


violations, top in the production
of hazardous waste. Houston overtook Los


Angeles for the coveted
title of ‘most polluted city’ in the early 90s.


    ‘You
are looking at the biggest oil refinery in the world,’ indicates LaNell


Anderson. She refers to
the edifice that is the 3,000-acre Exxon Mobil plant at


Baytown, near Houston, producer
of 507,800 barrels a day. Here begins a story of

both dynasty and destiny,
for it was on this spot in 1917 that the Bush family’s


oil connection was forged
– where the Humble Oil company, which struck black


gold in the Houston suburb
of that name, took root, later to be- come the Exxon


behemoth. Humble’s founder,
William Stamps Farish, went on to become president


of Standard Oil. His daughter
became a friend of George Bush Sr and his grandson


William Jr was taken in
‘almost like family’ (said Barbara Bush) while


campaigning for George Sr’s
entrée into Washington Senatorial politics in 1964.


Farish Jr claims to have
been the first man to whom Bush Sr confided his

ambition to be president
one day, and was last year named US Ambassador to


London.

    At first,
Anderson welcomed the benefits to a community of the 200 oil-related


industries relocated to
the Houston area by the time she and her second husband


set up home in a suburb
wedged between Exxon and the Lyondell chemical plant.


Neither she nor he had any
history of disease in their families. But in 1985,


her husband’s daughter gave
birth to a girl, Alyssa, with a rare liver disease –


she died aged six months.
In 1986, Anderson’s mother became ill and died of bone

cancer a year later. The
following year, Anderson and her sister were diagnosed


with rheumatoid arthritis,
as was a granddaughter in 1992, and an older sister


with Crohn’s disease. In
1991, her father died from emphysema; a year later the


mother of Alyssa gave birth
to a son immediately diagnosed with severe asthma.


Anderson connects the litany
of disease with mishaps by her industrial


neighbours. She paraphrases
their attitude thus: ‘If someone doesn’t like it,


they can sue us if they
can – and since we have more money than God, we will


win.’

    A thumbnail
sketch of politics and the environment in the United States today

depicts oil as the lifeblood
running through every vein of an administration


forging ahead with its energy
policy. The White House has just been forced to


disclose (after being faced
with a Congressional subpoena) that it drew up a


national energy plan based
on increased production without regard to the


environment or conservation,
having failed to consult with anyone other than its


friends among the producers
themselves, notably the disgraced Enron. This


despite the fact that an
energy crisis in California last summer caused most


analysts to draw the opposite
conclusion, stressing the need to curb a


gas-guzzling America.

    At the
hub of this turning wheel of influence is Vice President Dick Cheney,


fresh into office from his
post as chief executive of Halliburton, the world’s


second-largest oil-drilling
services company, where he netted a personal fortune


of $36m in the year before
leaving, with help from contacts accumulated while


serving under George Bush
Sr. Just last week, however, Halliburton joined Enron


in coming under investigation
by the Securities and Exchange Commission for the


same system of publishing
inflated revenues – ‘aggressive accounting’ – for


which Enron has become a
synonym for shame. These alleged misdeeds took place

during Cheney’s directorship.
The
company also faces a floodtide of civil


lawsuits over asbestosis_
unless a model can be found (as has been established


in Texas) to make such resort
to the law nigh impossible for anyone without


money.

    The entwinement
of the Bush dynasty with the energy barons of Texas has


apparently humble beginnings,
in the Lone Star State’s wild west, on the plains


around Midland and Odessa.
This is barren land across which dust devils fly and


trains rumble like iron
snakes. This is where George Bush Sr was sent by his

father, Senator Prescott
Bush, to a trainee job with the International Derrick


and Equipment Company, a
subsidiary of Dresser Industries, controlled by the


Bush family and selling
more oil rigs than anyone in the world. (Dresser later


became absorbed by Halliburton.)

    The world
first heard of Odessa on that fateful day in December 1998 when Bush


Jr was governor of Texas
and the sky turned black after an ‘upset’ at the


Huntsman chemical plant
literally on the wrong side of the railroad tracks it


shares with poor housing,
where Mexicans and blacks live. (An ‘upset’ is an

unplanned accident releasing
pollution, not part of the plant’s normal running


procedure, and which does
not count in its regulatory tally.) Lucia Llanez, who


lives in this tightly knit
community of bungalows between plant and railroad,


will never forget this one:
‘It was dark all over; cars on the Interstate


slowing down and putting
their lights on because they couldn’t see, though it


was day. There was a rumbling
like trains that rattled the windows, and people


were going to hospital for
watering eyes, allergies and problems breathing. The


cloud stayed two weeks.’

    The story
of Huntsman goes back to the days of Bush Sr’s arrival, when Odessa

was a town of what retired
fireman Don Dangerfield calls ‘wildcatters’. In the


40s, the US Air Force bombed
deep holes in the giant Permian oil basin in a


search for oil which then
attracted a stampede of speculators (including those


from Humble) who would,
recalls Dangerfield, ‘spend the nights in a hotel, the


End of the Golden West,
and gamble their lots in rooms so thick with cigar smoke


you could hardly see’. Among
them was a man he remembers well: John Sam


Shepherd, a former attorney
general of Texas and member of the White Citizens


Council – a political wing
of the Ku Klux Klan – disgraced by a land scandal and


come to seek his fortune
out West by setting up the El Paso Products company,

later Huntsman.

    George
Bush landed in this mayhem but quickly decamped 20 miles north to


Midland, where new millionaires
like him established a country club, a Harvard


and a Yale club, met at
the Petroleum Club and played golf on irrigated lawns.


Midland was, recalls Gene
Collins, a member of the National Association for the


Advancement of Colored People
in Odessam ‘one of two towns in America with a


Rolls-Royce dealership and
more millionaires per head than anywhere’. This was


where Bush Sr built his
oil fortune, launched a political career on its

shoulders and raised his
son George W Bush in the art and language of power he


now feigns not to speak.
The story of how Bush Sr constructed his empire is well


known, as is that of how
his son George W was groomed to follow in his


footsteps. Less widely broadcast,
however, are the depths and intricacies of a


system the Bush family built
in bonding with the energy industry, as the


dynastic machine elevated
its methods from Odessa to the Senate, the governor’s


mansion in Austin, the oil
centres of Houston and Dallas, the White House and


thereafter the globe.

    Neil
Carman has a professorial air to him that belies the sharpness of the

surgical blade with which
he tries to operate on ‘Toxic Texas’. Originally a


plant biologist, he was
an investigator for the Texas Natural Resources


Conservation Commission
(TNRCC), responsible for issuing permits for agreed


levels of pollution and
enforcing environmental law. In 1989, he took on the


General Tire and Rubber
Company for ‘systematic violations’.


    The firm
hired a lobbyist, Larry Feldcamp, from the Baker Botts law firm whose


senior partner, James Baker
III, was secretary of state to then president George


Bush Sr and who later, as
an attorney, secured the delivery of the state of

Florida for Bush Jr during
last year’s election recounts. Baker Botts advertises


itself as a ‘full service
firm’, counting Shell, Mobil, Union Carbide, Huntsman,


Amoco on its books. The
other law firm indivisible from the energy lobby and the


Bush fiefdom is Vinson &
Elkins, which acts for both Enron and the Alcoa


aluminium giant, whose former
chief executive Paul O’Neill is now US Treasury


Secretary. Between these
law firms and the regulatory body supposed to face them


down, says Dr Carman, ‘there’s
a revolving door. Feldcamp’s place was taken


recently by the most active
attorney on the oil scene, Pamela Giblin – one of

the TNRCC’s first appointees.’

    Carman
resigned because ‘all they had to do was hire people like Feldcamp and


you were off the case. They
did not deny permits – they must have issued 50,000


permits for air pollution
during my time and refused only two, on occasions when


the public raised hell.
And they don’t revoke them – it’s not like drunk


driving: if you get caught,
they just keep reissuing. They used to refer to


these places as “industrial
areas”, as if that meant they were outside the law.


I called them “sacrifice
zones”.’

    There
is another problem, unique to Texas: the ‘grandfathering’ rule.


Grandfathering dates back
to the Texas Clean Air Act of 1971, exempting existing


installations from compliance
with new regulations. The idea was that they would


be modernised or become
obsolete and close. In the event, firms found that not


being obliged to spend on
pollution control gave them a competitive edge, and


nearly three decades later,
grandfathering accounted for more than 1,000 plants


and 35 per cent of all pollution
in Texas. Nevertheless, in the early 90s, the


TNRCC began to toughen its
stance in accordance with a more aggressive federal

approach to pollution by
the new Clinton administration. Then, in 1994, Texas


went to the polls to elect
a new governor – ‘And when Bush took over,’ says


Carman, ‘everything changed.’

    Two groups
based in Austin – Texans for Public Justice (TPJ) and Public Research


Works (PRW) – crunched the
statistics on the wave of money on which George W


Bush sailed into the governor’s
mansion. It was what Andrew Wheat of the TPJ


calls ‘something unheard
of in Texas or anywhere else: $42m on two campaigns’.


Grandfathered polluters
poured $10.2m into the campaign coffers between 1993 and

1998, led by what PRW calls
the ‘dirty 30’, including Exxon, Shell, Amoco, Enron


and the Alcoa aluminium
giant. Bush himself received $1.5m from 55 grandfathered


companies, led by Enron,
with a handsome $348,500 top-up from the man he calls


Kenny Boy – Kenneth Lay,
the company’s chief executive, currently under criminal


investigation.

    Wheat’s
analysis of the new governor’s ‘personal time’ shows a revolving door


for campaign donors and
the energy industry. Andrew Barrett, Bush’s in-house


environmental policy advisor,
began daily visits to the TNRCC in preparation for

the appointment of new commissioners:
Ralph Marquez, lobbyist for the Texas


Chemical Council and former
executive of the Monsanto chemical firm, and Barry


McBee, attorney with the
law firm Thompson & Knight, a major contributor to Bush


funds with a host of oil-industry
clients.


    Legislation
based on the notion of ‘self-regulation’ followed: a law enabling


companies to audit their
own pollution records provided they reported them, in


exchange for which there
would be absolute protection from public disclosure.

Big oil was delighted, as
a memo obtained by an environmentalist group, the


Texas SEED Coalition, illustrated:
a record of a gathering in June 1977 at Exxon


in Houston by 40 representatives
of the Texas oil and gas industries – written


by one of their number –
said ‘the “insiders” from oil and gas believe that the


governor’s office will persuade
the TNRCC to accept whatever program is


developed between the industry
group and the governor’s office’.


    It was
not until Bush became president that, in its 2001 state legislature,


Texas finally decided to
rein in the ‘grandfathered’ plants. A bill gave them

until 2007 to come into
line with federal law or shut down. Even then, there was


a legal challenge to the
TNRCC’s science from the Houston Business Partnership,


recently entrusted with
millions in federal money to clean up the Gulf


coastline. The partnership
is a high-octane chamber of commerce, throwing up a


few familiar names: Exxon,
Conoco, Enron, James Baker’s law firm Baker Botts –


and George Bush Sr.

    Most
important of all – and best hidden – was Bush’s programme for Tort Reform.


It was this that his father’s
advisor Karl Rove (dispatched to steer Bush’s

presidential campaign and
now the White House itself) insisted the new governor


make his hallmark, and this
is potentially the dynasty’s greatest gift to big


oil. Put simply, Tort Reform
means making it harder for citizens to sue


corporations. TPJ calculated
that business interests specifically isolating Tort


Reform on their political
agenda poured money into Bush’s gubernatorial


campaigns. Soon after being
elected governor, says Andrew Wheat, Bush declared


Tort Reform an ’emergency
issue’.


    This
meant appointing a judge to the Texas supreme court whom President Bush
is

tipped to bring aboard the
Supreme Court in Washington (to which, some say, he


owes his presidency). Alberto
Gonzalez wrote a decision soon after his


appointment to the Texas
court which made it all but impossible for citizens to


bring class actions. ‘The
result,’ says Shawn Isbell, a lawyer working on


environmental cases, ‘is
that it will simply be too expensive to bring cases


against the corporations.’

    Another
ruling, says Sandra McKenzie, the lawyer who fought a long and bitter


battle against the Formosa
Plastics firm, stipulates that ‘anyone trying to

prove a personal chemical
injury had to show that other people in a similar


situation had suffered the
same reaction, according to a study in a published


journal’. The new precedents,
says McKenzie, ‘changed the laws to establish a


no-compromise, “take no
prisoners” approach by the Bushes’.


    In 1989,
George Bush presented the Governor’s Award for Environ mental


Excellence to the Valero
chemical refining company. Foremost in the minds of the


proud executives at the
ceremony in Austin’s luxury Four Seasons Hotel was their


‘refinery of the future’
at Corpus Christi, on the Gulf, at the far end of the

coastal strip that runs
through Houston to the Louisiana border.


    Alfred
Williams gets a better view of the refinery of the future across the


freeway from the garden
of his mobile home than Governor Bush did from the Four


Seasons. He can smell it
better too – the inimitable stench on the muggy delta


air that signifies the cooking
up of cheap crude-oil ‘feed stock’ to produce its


chemical by-product and
treating the neighbourhood to a dose of sulphur dioxide.


    When
Williams, an ex-Vietnam Marine, moved here in 1972, ‘this was all


farmland’. He now delivers
an impassioned requiem for his garden, with its peach

trees dead or buckling over.
The light of a quicksilver moon catches the plume


of sulphur along what they
call Refinery Row.


    ‘I’m
in my golden years,’ he reflects. ‘But I can’t sell my house because no


bank will give a loan without
40 per cent down. And they won’t relocate me, as


I’d do if they offered.

    ‘It started
with having to wipe residue from off of my car. Then the iron on my


rooftop here started to
get corroded, and the trees were dying. Sometimes I have


to come inside because my
eyes are burning.’

    Williams
filed a civil suit against Valero, steered by attorney Shawn Isbell.


The court in Corpus denied
Williams class action status in accordance with the


zeitgeist, but Isbell managed
to discover how the refinery of the future was so


poorly crafted that Valero
had (unsuccessfully) sued the companies which had


built it. She also found
out how the Texas system of overlooking ‘upsets’ works.


Since 1994, Valero had suffered
more than 480 ‘upsets’, but the TNRCC records


each set of emissions separately
– for example, Valero’s sulphur-dioxide


emissions for 1977 show
up on the commission’s website as 166.4 tons, while the

reality including ‘upsets’
is closer to 700 tons. Nevertheless, says Isbell,


‘I’ve seen the TNRCC go
harder after a pig farmer than I have after these kinds


of companies.’

    Williams
keeps a notebook by his phone to record the ‘upsets’ over the road. He


reports them to the TNRCC.
But, he says, ‘I call them rainbows: they are shut at


night and on the weekend
when the sulphur is released, and they only come when


the storm has come and gone.’

    Cornelius
Harmon is a cab driver in Corpus, and takes a drive along Refinery

Row, down a road he calls
the ‘buffer zone’. It divides a wasteland of former


housing – where those relocated
because of pollution by another plant, Koch,


once lived – from the mostly
black and Hispanic community of Hillcrest. ‘Are you


gonna tell me,’ posits Harmon,
‘that the hand of God Almighty drew a line down


this road and He says: “Over
yonder side is contaminated and this side is fit


for folks to live ?” And
what have we got here? Well, I’ll be doggone if it’s


not a school, with children
playing in the smell. The people who run these


things, they give our kids
a new pair of sneakers and go to church and think


they’re going to heaven.
But at the pearly gates, they’re going to find St Peter

in his Afro saying: “Whassup
cuz? Seems like you’re trying to get into the wrong


place.”‘

    Time
came for destiny to fulfil itself, for the son to stand for the high office


in Washington which the
Bush dynasty and its backers saw as having been usurped


by Bill Clinton. The story
of what carried George W Bush to the White House is


well known: the most ruthlessly
efficient campaigning machine ever assembled –


by Karl Rove – with all
the family’s best connections filling a treasure chest


that broke all records.
As they returned to number-crunching in Austin, Texans

for Public Justice and Public
Research Works found little to surprise them save


the machine’s speed and
efficacy. Within a month, Bush had raised hundreds of


thousands of dollars, with
Enron leading the field and two law firms giving


$146,900 – most prominently
Vinson and Elkins, attorneys to Enron and the Alcoa


aluminium giant, and James
Baker’s company, lawyers to the oil industry.


    When
Bush came to pick his cabinet, almost all pivotal positions went to Bush


Sr’s inner sanctum, apart
from the posts of commerce secretary (Don Evans,


longtime buddy of Bush Jr’s
and a fellow Midland oil man) and treasury secretary

(Paul O’Neill, currently
touring the globe with Bono of U2, and former chief


executive of Alcoa, the
world’s biggest producer of aluminium).


    Alcoa
held a stockholders meeting to send O’Neill off with a torrent of eulogies


and an annual pay packet
worth $36m, but three speakers spoiled the party. Two


were trade unionists from
O’Neill’s troubled plant at Ciudad Acuna in Mexico,


challenging the chief executive’s
claim that conditions at their factory were so


good ‘they can eat off the
floor’. The third was the soft-spoken Texan Ron


Giles, drawing attention
to the biggest of the state’s ‘grandfathered’ polluters

– the Alcoa smelting plant
at Rockdale. If the Rockdale plant were a single


state, it would count 40th
for pollution among the 50 in the union, belching


more than 100,000 tons of
toxins in 1997.


    The smokestacks
of the largest aluminium smelter in North America fit


incongruously into the pastoral
ranch land northeast of Austin. And they seem


especially odd as backdrop
to the 300-acre ranch where Wayne Brinkley’s family


has raised cattle since
the late 1800s, but over which hangs a stench wafting


across the moonscape of
Alcoa’s lignite mine.

    Brinkley
looks as much the Texan as President Bush in his boots and Stetson –


‘Only difference is,’ he
says, ‘I am one, and Bush is not.’ In his office is a


hog, stuffed and mounted,
and an awesome collection of vintage knives and


firearms. On his desk is
a survey by the independent Research Analysis


Consultations group showing
that concentrations of magnesium, calcium and


aluminium register ‘very
high’ around Brinkley’s barn, and sodium and titanium


over his fields. ‘My son
had cancer when he was just a young kid,’ he says in a


voice like sandpaper. ‘They
tried to buy us out. They keep offering various

deals saying I can’t talk
to anyone about this for 35 years, and then they


changed it to forever. But
why should I leave? My family’s been here 100 years;


they’ve been here 50. They
should do it by the book, and keep it clean for the


rest of us.’

    Alcoa
continues regardless, feted by Wall Street for ‘dazzling’ returns. But
in


the last light of a warm
evening, quiet rebellion stirs in the community room of


a little town called Elgin.
A group of local people, Neighbors for Neighbors,


have obtained records that
show Alcoa to be cheating, making improvements to its

production plant worth some
$45m without parallel investments in pollution


control. As a direct result
of the Neighbors’ exposé, the company was


investigated by a TNRCC
with no place to hide this time.


    Neighbors
for Neighbors, enjoying statewide coverage and acclaim for its pluck,


is itself suing the company.
Billie Woods, Neighbors’ president, says that Alcoa


has responded by pressing
ahead with its plans for a new lignite mine that would


carve up 15,000 acres of
farmland. The company has also made court applications


to enter and search the
homes of Neighbors activists. The request was denied,

but the matter moved the
usually conservative Daily Texan newspaper to demand:


‘Stop the Alcoa Gestapo!’

    Yesterday
Texas, today Washington, tomorrow the world. With Bush family business


back home in the US presidency,
it now moves, in the form of the father, to the


apex of global finance.
The Carlyle Group defines the next phase of power: a


Washington-based private
equity fund with a difference. It is headed by Frank


Carlucci, former CIA director
and defense secretary under Ronald Reagan and


lifelong friend of George
Bush Sr. Bush (also once director of the CIA) sits

next to Carlucci on the
board with a portfolio specialising in Asia and does not


hesitate to communicate
with his son on concerns of regional relevance to


Carlyle such as Afghanistan
or the Pacific Rim. Bush Jr was once chairman of a


Carlyle subsidiary making
in-flight food.


    On Carlucci’s
other flank is the ubiquitous James Baker III. Chairman of Carlyle


Europe is John Major. The
group’s new asset management is headed by Afsaneh


Beschloss, former treasurer
of the World Bank. Carlyle has grown quickly to be


worth some $12bn, specialising
in energy and defence, with particular attention

to the oil-producing Gulf
states. Among its most eager investors is Prince


Bandar, Saudi ambassador
to Washington and his father Prince Sultan, the


kingdom’s defence minister.
The group’s most spectacular recent coup was to reap


$400m in a stock sale of
its subsidiary United Defence Industries, maker of the


Crusader artillery system
which most military experts argued was redundant, but


which won $470m in development
money from the Pentagon and whose future in the


US arsenal still hangs in
the balance after a series of recent meetings between


Carlucci and Defence Secretary
Donald Rumsfeld. Within a month of 11 September


last year, Carlucci was
meeting with Rumsfeld and his deputy Paul Wolfowitz, and

10 days later offered an
assessment which exactly predicted the endless-war


scenario: ‘We as Americans,’
he said, ‘have to recognise that terrorism is more


or less a permanent situation.’

    ‘What’s
the secret?’ chided William Conway, a co-founder of the group. ‘I don’t


think we have any secrets.
We are a group of businessmen who have made a huge


amount of money for our
investors.‘ ‘I never bought into this conspiracy
theory


about
the Bush family, the energy companies or the Carlyle Group,’ says Michael


King,
seasoned political editor of the Austin Chronicle , who has observed the

phenomenon
for decades. ‘It is perfectly clear what they’re aiming at from what


they
do in public: managing the global economy to their own advantage, and doing


a
pretty good job of it.’


    On 11
September, while Al-Qaeda’s planes slammed into the World Trade Center
and


the Pentagon, the Carlyle
Group hosted a conference at a Washington hotel. Among


the guests of honour was
a valued investor: Shafig bin Laden, brother to Osama.

THANKS: COULTHART.

THE COMING OIL PRODUCTION PEAK…

15 JUNE 2002: THE COMING
OIL PRODUCTION PEAK…

——– Original Message
——–


Subject: Viridian Note 00316: 
Hubbert’s Peak


Date: 11 Jun 2002 23:34:02
-0000


From: Bruce Sterling <bruces@well.com>

(((I have  received
this elegantly composed rant


from Eric Hughes, 
who often favors us with his perorations.)))

Hubbert’s Peak, The Impending
World Oil Shortage


by Kenneth S. Deffeyes

Princeton University Press,
2001

Reviewed by Eric Hughes

One of my favorite Matt Groening
cartoons is near the

beginning of the Love is
Hell series, where he recommends,


next time you are think
about doing something shameless,


just consider “how long
you’re going to be dead”.  Below


that is a timeline, stretching
to infinity in both


directions, with a small
black dot in the middle labeled


“you are here.”

    The same
illustration might well have been captioned

“how long you’re not going
to be mining oil from the


ground.”

    This
last weekend I had the great pleasure of reading


*Hubbert’s Peak*, a book
on the global petroleum industry.


The author is a recently-retired
geologist who taught at


Princeton for thirty years,
worked in the oil industry


before that, and grew up
in the middle of Kansas oil


fields.  The man is
pure oil-intelligentsia, a category I

was not previously familiar
with.  The book contains a


wealth of detail, not exhaustive
and dry detail, but


selective and illuminating
detail.


    The purpose
of the book is to make and justify a


prediction about the year
of maximum world oil production.


His precedent is a 1956
prediction by M. King Hubbert (a


former colleague of his)
that U.S. oil production would

peak in the early 1970’s. 
The actual peak was 1970.


    Let’s
cut to the chase.  Deffeyes’s prediction is


2004.7, plus or minus a
couple of years.  As he says


immediately thereafter:
“There is nothing plausible that


could postpone the peak
to 2009.  Get used to it.”

   I’m not going
to summarize the argument; that’s the


content of the book. 
I will summarize, though, the


subject elements that lead
up to the argument: initial oil


formation, the geology of
its deposits, prospecting,


drilling and extraction,
and the statistics of oil fields


and their discovery. 
He then spends a couple of chapters

on Hubbert’s argument, and
another couple on the future.


It’s a relatively slender
book, only about 200 pages.


It’s plenty to make his
point, without overflowing into


boredom.

    One of
the delights of the book is the author’s sense


of humor.  At one point
in the text he presents a


particular way of doing
a graph that he’s proud of.  Fifty

pages later, in an endnote,
he makes the following


comment: “Here in the back
of the book, where my editor


isn’t likely to look, we
can derive the equation.”  This


combination of enthusiasm
and restraint in the exposition


is one of the charms of
the book.


    Another
appreciation I got from this book is the


difference in the dynamics
between oil and gas production.

They are intertwined in
terms of their discovery and


production techniques, but
their drilling and markets are


divergent.

    Oil is
found primarily in the “oil window” of 7,500


and 15,000 feet; gas is
found below those depths.  Both


are sources of combustion
energy, but they aren’t direct


replacements.  In order
to switch, capital has to be

invested, which takes a
while.  The oil peak really


matters, since it’s not
possible to immediately transition


to natural gas or any other
energy source.


    It is
easy to question individual assumptions and


intermediate conclusions
in the argument.  That’s not


really the point, though. 

The conclusion that Deffeyes

draws is both very narrow
and quite robust.  His only


point is to estimate the
year in which the most oil will


be taken from the ground
worldwide.  He is not making a


prediction about oil prices,
about how many years of oil


there are left, nor of any
number of other questions about


the dynamics.  What’s
interesting is that under many

variations of the model
and permutations of the


assumptions, the peak year
doesn’t really budge.


    The model
is robust against variations in reserve


estimates.  As recently
observed on this list, total


reserves depend a lot on
the prevailing oil price.  This


observation, though, doesn’t
change the estimate of the

peak year of production. 
Discoveries lead production by


about 11 years.  This
reflects the capital investment


cycle and the time needed
to get into production.


    
As oil prices rise, existing reserves come into


economic viability, but
still with a lag time, and that


lag time is longer because
many of these sources require

technology transfer in addition
to the capital spending.


As a result, there may well
be some local upswings in


production after the peak,
but total world production will


never reach its maximum
again.


   Along the lines
of other critiques, Thomas Gold’s idea


of deeply buried hydrocarbons
does not change this


prediction of the oil peak. 
First, Gold is speaking

primarily of methane, the
principal component of natural


gas.  Even the partial
replenishment referenced in


Viridian Note 00314 was
“very light oil and gas.”  The oil


window goes down only to
15,000 feet because below that,


it’s too hot for long-chain
hydrocarbons to be stable.  So


even if Gold is right about
oil and gas being produced by

microbes from raw organic
materials embedded in the earth,


that doesn’t change the
timing of the oil peak.  Deep


drilling for oil is poppycock;
deep  drilling gets you gas, not oil.


    This
is a science book, not an economic or political


tract.  Deffeyes makes
no political predictions, but he

does observe that political
disruption is inevitable.  The


U.S. oil crisis of the early
1970’s was precipitated by


the peak of U.S. oil production
in 1970.  Prior to that,


fluctuations in U.S. demand
could be satisfied by simply


pumping more American oil. 
After the American peak, the


excess demand could only
be met with overseas oil.  Once

OPEC realized this, there
was a “crisis”.


    The disruptions
that will happen after a world oil


peak will be even more interesting,
as in the curse about


“interesting times.” 
Excess demand is going to be met by


rationing; some will simply
have to go without.


Previously, demand could
be met by shifting the source of


supply.  This time
there is no more source of supply

anywhere.  The few
years after the peak will  be particularly


disruptive, since during
that time many  profound assumptions


about the way the world
works will be  proven wrong.


Bad investment decisions
will be revealed  in hindsight,

and one should expect an
orgy of finger-pointing.


    Deffeyes
mentions a potential flashpoint:  “You


guessed it; several islands
stick up in the middle of the


South China Sea, and the
drilling rights are claimed by


six different countries.” 
These, as I recall, are the


Spratly Islands.  The
claimants, just to give an idea of

the touchiness of the situation,
are China, Taiwan,


Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei,
and the Philippines.  Control


of the islands is currently
divided between the six


disputants.

    After
a world oil peak, oil prices will go inevitably


upward for some years, continuously
increasing the stakes.


This is an unstable situation
that may well lead to war.

If this sounds alarmist,
it’s worth considering the Middle


East, the single largest
oil region in the world.  Ask


yourself if the U.S. would
have much political interest in


a Middle East without oil
fields.


   I have painted
a pessimistic picture of the medium-term


future.  The long-term
future, while not worked out, has

no such negative necessities. 
For one, there’s plenty of


oil left after the peak
of production; it’s just going to


get rarer and more expensive. 
The taps won’t all turn off


at once.  There is
plenty of time to develop a successor


energy infrastructure. 
Note that I didn’t say

“alternative energy infrastructure.” 
There won’t be


anything alternative about
the successor energy regime.


   Right now everything
is an alternative to oil.  Soon


these other sources will
become the main ball game.  I was


gratified to read about
the large remaining natural gas

reserves.  Reformation
of natural gas is the best


immediate source of fuel
hydrogen, and there’s plenty of


it.  Making the transition
to a hydrogen economy will


cost, but it will certainly
be possible.


    On balance,
I’d consider this book a Viridian must-


read.  It’s a wake-up
call, a particular Viridian

competence.  Every
important opinion needs enthusiasts as


promoters.  I’ll be
promoting the lesson of Hubbert’s


peak; please do likewise.

Eric Hughes