(courtesy Sammy Harkham at FAMILY)

Analysis: Behind troop surge, a Neocon force – Los Angeles Times

By Peter Spiegel, Times Staff Writer
7:07 PM PST, January 3, 2007

WASHINGTON — Ever since Iraq began spiraling toward chaos, the war’s intellectual architects — the so-called neoconservatives — have found themselves under attack in Washington policy salons and, more important, within the Bush administration.

Paul Wolfowitz, who was the Defense Department’s most senior neocon, was shipped off to the World Bank. His Pentagon colleague Douglas Feith departed for academia. John Bolton left the State Department for the United Nations.

But other neocons have moved back into the mainstream of steering Iraq policy. A key part of the new Iraq plan that President Bush is expected to announce next week — a surge in U.S. troops coupled with a more focused counterinsurgency effort — has been one of the chief recommendations of these neocons since the fall of Saddam Hussein.

This group — which includes William Kristol, editor of The Weekly Standard magazine, and Frederick Kagan, a military analyst at the American Enterprise Institute — was expressing concerns about the administration’s blueprint for Iraq even before the invasion almost four years ago. In these neoconservatives’ view, not enough troops were being set aside to stabilize the country. They also worried that the Pentagon had formulated a plan that concentrated too heavily on killing insurgents rather than securing law and order for Iraqi citizens.

They have long advocated for a more classic counterinsurgency campaign: a manpower-heavy operation that would take U.S. soldiers out of their large bases dotted across the country and push them into small outposts in troubled towns and neighborhoods to interact with ordinary Iraqis.

Until now, it was an argument that had fallen on deaf ears.

“We have been pretty consistently in this direction from the outset,” said Kagan, whose December study detailing his strategy is influencing the administration’s current thinking. “I started making this argument even before the war began, because I watched in dismay as we messed up Afghanistan and then heard with dismay the rumors that we would apply some sort of Afghan model to Iraq.”

If Bush goes ahead with the surge idea, along with a concomitant shift to a more aggressive counterinsurgency, it would in many ways represent a wholesale repudiation of the outgoing Pentagon leadership.

These leaders — particularly former Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Army Gen. John Abizaid, the departing Middle East commander — strongly resisted more U.S. troops and a larger push into troubled neighborhoods out of fear it would prevent Iraqis from taking over the job themselves and exacerbate the image of the United States as an occupier.

The plan the administration appears to be moving toward envisions an increase of 20,000 to 30,000 troops, the majority of whom would be sent to Baghdad. The increase would be achieved by delaying the departure of Marine units already in Iraq and speeding the deployment of Army brigades due this spring.

The neoconservative group as a whole had been the driving force in Washington behind a move against Iraq, even before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. They saw Saddam as a lingering threat to world security — a view bolstered within the administration after the attacks. They argued that transforming Iraq into a democracy could serve as a model with potential to remake the Middle East’s political dynamics.

The war effort’s unraveling gradually undermined the clout they had wielded. But perhaps the more important hurdle — especially on military matters — was the White House’s refusal to see its Iraq policy as a failure.

That changed this summer, when the spike in sectarian violence and the failure of an offensive to secure Baghdad created what one Pentagon adviser called a “psychological break” within the administration. Until then, neoconservatives argue, the administration saw little proof that Abizaid’s plan, backed by Army Gen. George Casey, the military commander in Iraq, was failing.

The main reason for the new ascendancy of the neocon recommendations, said Kristol, is that “the Rumsfeld-Abizaid-Casey theory was tried and was found wanting. … Some of us challenged it very early on, but, of course, then we were just challenging it as a competing theory.”

Although Kristol, Kagan and their intellectual allies have pushed for their policy for more than three years, they bristle at the notion that the idea of a larger troop presence in Iraq and a different approach to securing the country is wholly a neoconservative idea.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a leading presidential contender, has been pushing for more troops and a different security strategy for nearly as long as Kristol and Kagan. Recently, support for a revised counterinsurgency plan has gained support among military officers, active and retired. Perhaps most notable is retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, a former Army chief of staff who signed onto Kagan’s plan last month.

The case for change has been bolstered by actions the military itself has taken, including a successful 2005 Army offensive in the northern Iraqi city of Tall Afar, where midlevel officers used counterinsurgency tactics to suppress sectarian violence. The Pentagon released a new counterinsurgency field manual last month that largely echoed the neocons’ thinking.

The troop-surge proposal is not embraced by all neoconservatives. Wolfowitz, for instance, had ridiculed the notion that more troops would be needed to secure Iraq. Richard Perle, a former top adviser to the Pentagon who advocated for smaller troop numbers at the time of the invasion, is known to be skeptical of a surge.

The plan’s advocates acknowledge the split within the neocon movement.

“Before the war, I was arguing for a quarter of a million troops in expectations we’d be there five or 10 years,” said Gary Schmitt, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute who has worked closely with Kristol and Kagan. “Richard Perle, obviously somebody else who’s thought of as a neocon, thought we should go in” with far fewer U.S. forces.

The neocons calling for more troops in Iraq and different tactics have pressed their proposals in public writings and speeches and in private conversations within the administration.

Kenneth Adelman, a leading neoconservative thinker, recalled a meeting a year ago of the Defense Policy Board, a group of outside advisers to the Pentagon, during which he pressed Rumsfeld to implement more traditional counterinsurgency ideas, such as keeping soldiers longer in their deployed areas to get to know the local population better.

“What you need for counterinsurgency has been pretty clear for some time: You need to protect the population and get the population to fight the insurgents with you, or at least inform on them,” Adelman said. “The fight is over the population, it’s not over getting the enemy.”

Much like they did when advocating for the invasion, these neocons have promoted their military strategy even at times when it was seen as politically unpalatable.

“What you can say about Fred Kagan and Bill Kristol … is they’ve been constant in sounding this theme,” said Eliot A. Cohen, a military analyst at Johns Hopkins University’s international studies school in Washington who has advised the administration on Iraq policy. “You’ve had other people who have dropped in and out of this.”

Courtesy R. Pleuger

by J.R. “Bob” Dobbs

“Meet “Bob.” Lord of the SubGenius. Scientific Shaman. Big Brother Au-Go-Go. He sits comfortably at the apex of the pyramid of worldly knowledge, twiddling his thumbs. His word, according to followers, is The Word, and that word is Slack. Beyond science, reason — and orgasm — find in Bobliography instant instructions for those who follow no master.

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THINGS ARTHUR GOT BEHIND IN 02006, MONTH BY MONTH:

** JANUARY 02006 (published Dec 02005) **
“THE BUDDHA MACHINE” machine
COLLEEN “The Golden Morning Breaks” album
EARTH “Hex: or Printing in the Infernal Method” album
SUNN 0)) “Black 1” album
TV ON THE RADIO “Dry Drunk Emperor” mp3
CAST KING “Saw Hill Man” album
NINA SIMONE “The Soul of Nina Simone” dual disc
“Niger: Magic & Ecstasy in the Sahel” dvd
OOIOO album
PEARLS AND BRASS “The Indian Tower” album
THE FALL “Fall Heads Roll” album
TARANTULA A.D. “Book of Sand” album
MI AND L’AU “Mi and L’Au” album
BJORN OLSSON the lobster album
BIFF ROSE “The Thorn in Mrs. Rose’s Side”/”Children of Light” cd
LAVENDER DIAMOND “The Cavalry of Light” ep

**ARTHUR MAGAZINE MARCH 02006 (pub’d Feb 02006)**
DELIA GONZALEZ & GAVIN RUSSOM “The Days of Mars” album
TAV FALCO & PANTHER BURNS
MOUNTAINS “Sewn” album
CITAY “Citay” album
THE DUKE SPIRIT “Cuts Across the Lane” album
ISOBEL CAMPBELL & MARK LANEGAN “Ballad of the Broken Seas” album
BETH ORTON “Comfort of Strangers” album
BELLE & SEBASTIAN “The Life Pursuit” album
SPARKS “Hello Young Lovers” album

** ARTHURBALL: FEB. 24-25, 02006 IN LOS ANGELES**
JOANNA NEWSOM debut performs entire album “Ys” to 700 stunned audients nine months ahead of its release
5:15ERS one-time only performance by Josh Homme/Chris Goss desert duo
MORIS TEPPER legendary Beefheart guitarist with PJ HARVEY on bass
LAVENDER DIAMOND special perf with a string quartet
GRANT MORRISON live radiant standup poet rant
BRIGHTBLACK MORNING LIGHT hazy daisies
COLLEEN from France, for a single gauzy U.S. show
SUBLIME FREQUENCIES filmmakers who find the last sounds left from the older world
WHITE RAINBOW sound room of light at Machine Gallery
ERIK DAVIS performance lecture
PEARLS AND BRASS big-armed rockage
B+ beats filmmaker
PLASTIC CRIMEWAVE SOUND hydroponic sonics
MI & L’AU woodland elementals
UNKNOWN INSTRUCTORS beatnik explosion
TARANTULA A.D the next Floyd
OM metaltators
CITAY rolling pastoral psych / gentle metal
GROWING couchlock
AFROBEAT DOWN ow
THE MARS SOCIETY time to leave the planet
LEWIS MACADAMS interview by KRISTINE MCKENNA american river history
BORN HELLER Josephine Foster
INDIAN JEWELRY dark jamboree
TOWN & COUNTRY fully functional dream machine

** ARTHUR MAGAZINE MAY 02006 (pub’d April 02006) **
GROWING “The Color Wheel” album
ORGANIC APPLE CIDER VINEGAR with the ‘mother’
OM “Conference of Birds” album
JEREMY NARBY “Intelligence in Nature: An Inquiry Into Knowledge” book
PANDIT PRAN NATH chapter from “The Dawn of Indian Music in the West” book by Peter Lavezzoli
MARVIN GAYE “The Real Thing: In Performance, 1964-1981” dvd
GNARLS BARKLEY “St. Elsewhere” album
RUFUS HARLEY “Sustain” album
THE BLACK KEYS “Chulahoma” ep
EAGLES OF DEATH METAL “Death by Sexy” album
THE CUTS album
FUTURE PIGEON album
AGGROLITES album
FIERY FURNACES “Bitter Tea” album
ESPERS “II” album
ALEX MITCHELL “Life is a Phantom K-Mart Horse Starting Up in the Middle of the Night” book
JOHN TOTTENHAM “The Inertia Variations” book
JOSEPHINE FOSTER “A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing” album
SCOTT WALKER “The Drift” album
FRED NEIL compilation album
BELONG “October Language” album
BORIS “Pink” album
HOWLIN RAIN album

**ARTHUR MAGAZINE JULY 02006 (pub’d June 02006) **
BRIGHTBLACK MORNING LIGHT album
MINT herb
DERRICK JENSEN “Endgame” book
“THE ROAD TO GUANTANAMO” film by Michael Winterbottom & Mat Whitecross
PETER WATKINS “Punishment Park,” “Culloden,” “The War Game,” “La Commune,” “The Gladiators,” “Edvard Munch,” “Privilege” dvds
ED HALTER “From Sun Tzu to Xbox: War and Video Games” book
BELONG “October Language” album
COMETS ON FIRE “Avatar” album
VETIVER “To Find Me Gone” album
AWESOME COLOR album
“ZIZEK!” dvd
BEAVIS & BUTTHEAD “The Mike Judge Collection Volume 2” dvd
“PHI TA KHON: GHOSTS OF ISAN” dvd directed by Robert Millis
“A VISIT TO ALI FARKE TOURE” dvd by Marc Hurax
TONY ALLEN “Lagos No Shaking” album
“ECCENTRIC SOUL: THE BIG MACK LABEL” album by The Numero Group
JAMES HUNTER “People Gonna Talk” album
RAMBLIN’ JACK ELLIOTT “I Stand Alone” album
LOREN CONNORS “Night Through: Singles and Collected Works 1976-2004” 3-cd box et
CHARALAMBIDES “A Vintage Burden” album
“THE GOLDING INSTITUTE PRESENTS FINAL RELAXATION” self-help album of the year

** Aug. 1, 02006: IRA COHEN’S “INVASION OF THUNDERBOLT PAGODA” DVD released**

** Aug. 29, 02006: JOSEPHINE FOSTER’S “SO MUCH FIRE TO ROAST HUMAN FLESH” CD released — a compilation to benefit counter-military recruiting campaigns **

** ARTHUR MAGAZINE OCTOBER 02006 (pub’d SEPT 02006) **
ETHAN MILLER of COMETS ON FIRE & HOWLIN’ RAIN
WALNUTS brainfood
THE SHARP EASE “Remain Instant” ep
WENDY MULLIN Sew U book
JOHN SINCLAIR guide
AKRON/FAMILY “Meek Warrior” album
BEACH HOUSE album
MICK BARR & ZACH HILL “Earthship” ep
THE HORRORS “The Horrors” ep
THE USA IS A MONSTER “Sunset at the End of the Industrial Age”
WOLF EYES “Human Animal” album
“GOOD GOD! A GOSPEL FUNK HYMNAL” album
THE BYRDS boxset
TRAINWRECK RIDERS “Lonely Road Revival” album
ED ROSENTHAL’S BIG BUDS calendar
BUFFALO KILLERS album
BLIND FAITH “London Hyder Park 1969” dvd
GRAHAM COXON “Love Travels at Illegal Speeds” album

** ARTHUR NIGHTS OCT. 19-22, 02006 in LOS ANGELES **
ARCHIE BRONSON OUTFIT
AWESOME COLOR Li’l Stooges
AXOLOTL
BE YOUR OWN PET
BELONG
BERT JANSCH
BORIS
BUFFALO KILLERS
C.B. BRAND
CHARALAMBIDES
CHRISTINA CARTER
CHUCK DUKOWSKI SEXTET family outing
THE COLOSSAL YES
COMETS ON FIRE
EFFIE BRIEST
ESPERS
FIERY FURNACES
FUTURE PIGEON
GROUPER
HEARTLESS BASTARDS
THE HOWLING HEX
JACKIE BEAT
JOSEPHINE FOSTER
LIVING SISTERS (Inara George, Eleni Mandell & Becky Stark)
KYP MALONE (of TV on the Radio)
MIA DOI TODD
MICHAEL HURLEY
MICK BARR
MONEY MARK
THE NICE BOYS
NOEL VON HARMONSON & BEN CHASNY
THE NUMERO GROUP dj sets!
OM
RESIDUAL ECHOES
RUTHANN FRIEDMAN
THE SHARP EASE
SIX ORGANS OF ADMITTANCE
SSM
SUNDOWN SCHOOLHOUSE group led by Fritz Haeg
SUN RA ARKESTRA
TALL FIRS
TAV FALCO & PANTHER BURNS
WATTS PROPHETS
WHITE MAGIC
WOODEN WAND & VANISHING VOICE
YELLOW SWANS

** ARTHUR MAGAZINE WINTER 02006 (pub’d Nov 02006) **
JOANNA NEWSOM “Ys” album
CHRISTIAN RATSCH & CLAUDIA MULLER-EBELING “Pagan Christmas: The Plants, Spirits and Rituals of Yuletide” book
ALAN MOORE pornographer
LISA ANNE AUERBACH sweaters
TV ON THE RADIO aware
CHUCK DUKOWSKI guide
SANDY BULL “Still Valentine’s Day 1969” album
SUNN O)) & BORIS “Altar” album
WHITE MAGIC “Dat Rosa Mel Apibus” album

*** SOME (NOT ALL) OTHER GREAT STUFF WE WERE TOTALLY GASSED ON BUT WERE UNABLE TO DEVOTE ACHIEVEMENT-APPROPRIATE COVERAGE TO***

ALELA DIANE “The Pirate’s Gospel” album
ALLEN GINSBERG “First Blues” album
THE BLACK CROWES “Tall” album
BOB DYLAN “Modern Times” album
BONNIE PRINCE BILLY “The Letting Go” album
BRAIN DONOR “Drain’d Boner” album
CALIFONE album
CAT POWER “The Greatest” album
CORMAC MCCARTHY “The Road” novel
DANIEL (A.I.U) HIGGS “Interdimensional Song-Seamstress” album
DEAD MOON “Echoes of the Past” 2xCD
DEERHUNTER “Cryptograms” album
DIRTY PRETTY THINGS “Waterloo” album
DOGNTANK album
EL GOODO album
ENTRANCE “Prayer of Death” album
FETUS “Battiato” album
GEORGE MITCHELL COLLECTION 7-inch vinyl series on Fat Possum
GREGG KOWALSKY “Through the Cardinal Window” album
THE HEADS “Under the Stress of a Headlong Dive” album
HERESI “Psalm II” ep
THE HOWLING HEX album
IAN SVENONIUS “The Psychic Soviet” little pink book
J.G. BALLARD “Kingdom Come” novel
IDIOCRACY film by Mike Judge
JOHN CALE “New York in the ’60s” boxset
JOHN MCBAIN “The In-Flight Feature” album
KAREN DALTON “In My Own Time” album
LIARS “Drums Not Dead” album
LOS LOBOS album
LOSCII “Plume” album
LUCCIO BATTISTI “Amore E Non Amore” album
M. WARD “Post-War” album
THE MARS VOLTA album
MARY J. BLIGE “MJB Da MVP” song
THE MASTER MUSICIANS OF JAJOUKA “Bouheloud” album
MATTHEW FRIEDBERGER “Winter Women” album
MICHAEL KUPPERMAN “Tales Designed to Thrizzle” comics
MILTON NASCIMENTO
MOONCHILD “Songs Without Words” album
MV & EE WITH THE BUMMER ROAD “Green Blues” album
NEIL YOUNG “Living With War” album
NICK OLIVERI AND THE MONDO GENERATOR “Dead Planet: SonicSlowMotionTrails” album
NINA SIMONE “Forever Young, Gifted & Black: Songs of Freedom and Spirit” album
NOAH GEORGESON “Find Shelter” album
ONEIDA “The Wedding Party” album
OOIOO “Taiga” album
ORTHODOX “Gran Poder” album
PAUL WINE JONES “Stop Arguing Over Me” album
THE PSYCHIC PARAMOUNT “Origins and Primtives (vol. 1 + 2)” 2xalbum
RICK VEITCH “Can’t Get No” book
SILVER APPLES “The Garden” album
SLY STONE Grammys appearance
SOFT MACHINE “Middle Earth Masters” and “Grides” albums
SIX ORGANS OF ADMITTANCE “The Sun Awakens” album
SONIC YOUTH “Rather Ripped” and “The Destroyed Rooms” albums
THOMAS PYNCHON “Against the Day” novel
TOWN AND COUNTRY “Up Above” album
“Townes Van Zandt: Be Here to Love Me” film dvd by Margaret Brown
VIKING MOSES various albums
VINCENT BLACK SHADOW album
“What We Want, What We Believe: The Black Panther Party Library” 4xdvd presented by The Roz Payne Archives and Newsreel Films
WINTER FLOWERS album
WIRE “Live at the Roxy, London April 1 &2, 1977″/”Live at CBGB July 18, 1978” cd
YO LA TENGO “I am…” album

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